Saturday, February 21, 2015

Nice to Know You Were Listening- Now On To The Matter of Russia and Ukraine

                    Thanks for making me proud of all of your fair minded somewhat geniuses that the EU countries call Finance Ministers. Common sense must prevail in your meetings. You made me very sad to hear that you were permitting Germany to set the tone for Greece's finance package. I thought there were 29 countries in the European Union and that the EU was run by a parliament and commissioners, not by a doddy old queen- (Germany has repeatedly opposed uniting the European Union because it thinks because it has the largest economy that it should be the ruling country. However, in a democracy, every citizen and every state has a vote. Germany even blocked a You Tube video of the Proposed Constitution of the United European Union and has since 2012. Because it wants to call the shots instead of allowing each country to have a voice.

Why did the Russian- Ukraine talks end so badly and why was the outcome so poor and one sided? Germany wanted to cut a sweetheart deal with Russia- as did France, (but France is more loyal to the European Union and more of a team player than Germany will ever be)- with the exclusion of a majority of the ECB staff including Mr. Draghi. They are loyal to the European Union.

Had Merkel stayed home and minded her own business, a better deal would have been negotiated. However, no deal with Russia, whose economy is crumbling faster than they want anyone to believe, will be maintained until Vladimir Putin is removed as dictator in chief. You need to cut the head off of the snake.

Russia is now threatening the United Kingdom, Ossetia, Moldova, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Netherlands. When will NATO Command find their testicles and send troops into Ukraine? Twenty thousand troops would do the job. No nuclear war, no invasion of Europe, cut the head off of the snake in eastern Ukraine and allow the separatists to be exiled in Russia for the remainder of their lives.

                                             Now to the big stuff............SANCTIONS

Considering the fact that the world is in a political and economic war with Russia, and that war will continue as long as Russia has an economy, and that the dictator of Russia who was not legally and democratically elected in a fair election will continue to attempt to destabilize the word's economies as long as he is permitted to, there is only a few alternatives left to the remainder of the world and none of them are pretty.

It will require great fortitude and a strong stomach to read this as many tens of thousands may die regardless of what path is taken. Think strongly on these things before you act as each one will bring retaliation from the snake in Moscow- evil as his heart is.

1. Death knell: Dead bank letters ending all currency transactions by and between any bank outside of Russia and imposing swift sanctions on countries that assist the criminal enterprise of Vladimir Putin and his oligarchs.

2. Replacing the natural gas supply from Russia with LNG from Mexico, Brazil, the US, Canada, and many other countries. 120 days equipment conversion is definitely possible.

3.  Slower death: Dead Bank letters to half of the 50 largest banks in Russia.

     The problem is that snakes don't have legs and don't rely all that much on balance to keep them slithering along before they strike. Also, the other half of the banks would be required to share the pain of the dying banks.

You need to look at Putin as a wounded rat in a corner bearing its fangs. A broom will not kill it. It can still cause you great harm. On the other hand, a .45 calibre handgun would make an awful mess of things.

In this battle of propaganda and economics, China is acting like Switzerland did in WWII. Not taking sides, but benefiting from both sides. (Sorry Swiss, but it is the sad truth). Your apologies are accepted. China needs cheap oil to keep its own economy running, so don't look for help or peril from China.

The problem is that the weak responses to date have been your bane. You need to send NATO troops and equipment into Ukraine to balance the threat of an invasion (impending, as if you don't realize it yet)!

Putin thinks we want to take over Russia - REALLY!!!  The reality is that we DON'T!!!   If you have not noticed he has not looked the camera in the lens in months. Why?  The bags under his eyes, the loss of sleep, his nervous nature, his megalomania, all Hitler like qualities of an insane person who thinks he will get away with murder if he threatens the jury.

Putin and his country are trapped- like rats on a sinking ship. In nine months, tens of thousands will be dead or dying in Russia due to slowly declining value of the ruble. The continuing decline in the price of oil, despite oil worker strikes and sabotage at refineries- as a result of the greed of the oil and natural gas companies and the political cooperation of Iran and the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia (yes,we are playing both sides of that one too), will gradually cause an economic rebellion and then a political rebellion in Russia over the next year.

Putin's reign is over, but he refuses to give up the reigns. More likely than not, a military commander loyal to the Communist Party will temporarily take control. Putin will be taken into custody and turned over to the Hague for war crimes (Malaysian Flight MH 17) and supplying eastern Ukraine separatists with lethal arms.
Unfortunately, this too will take a year or more.

The issue is resolve. How resolved are the members of the United Nations to seeing a peaceful end to this mess? We have yet to hear from them about sponsoring a negotiated treaty that is beneficial to everyone. Why not allow the United Nations and the International Court weigh in,  but that takes time too.

Because of this one man's mental disease, people have died by the thousands. What is it worth to free Russia and the world of his terrorism? Ten thousand people? Twenty Thousand people? Thirty thousand people?
Fifty thousand people?

There will be no nuclear war. This was a hollow threat and always has been. There will be no invasion of Russia. Only the removal of a few rats and cockroaches.

You could post NATO troops along the borders of European Union countries, impose an embargo of trade with Russia- but, that too will take time. Make Russian an international no fly zone. That would speed things up quite a bit- but still would take time and international cooperation.

I believe a three pronged approach just might work though.  1) Suspending Russia from membership in the United Nations as long as it financially supports eastern Ukraine separatists and maintains troops, spies, or military equipment  in any sovereign nation including Hungary, Bulgaria, Ossetia, Georgia, Uzbekistan,and Kazakhstan. 2) Issuing Dead Bank letters this month (February 2015) to Russia's 50 largest banks, and
3) embargoing trade from entering Russia by air, sea, and truck and imposing sanctions on non-cooperative countries- results of this tri-fold approach-  economic collapse in 90 days, a strategic launch by Putin within that time frame ended by NATO.

Now, be forewarned, if you wuss out, thousands to tens of thousands will die, Putin will take control of even more land- and then the United States will wade in and remove the snake and stomps its head with its heel.

Biblical isn't it? -- No. "There will be wars and rumours of war, but the end is not yet (Matthew)."  The big one will come when China crosses Mongolia.

So, what do you want to do?  Economic stability will not come while the snake is in the market.


In the end, no matter what,  Russia will economically implode. If oil prices continue to fall, and they will, more than likely down to $15 to $25 per barrel crude US and $10-15 more for Brent crude stabilizing next year at around $56-65 per barrel for US crude.

If the European Union unifies, the collapse of Russia will happen at nearly the same rate, but the economic fallout would be lessened among every state of the EU if it were united.

Be forewarned, Russian spies and plants are everywhere throughout the EU trying to keep the EU from unifying as one country.

This is the beginning of a new age- step strongly forward and choose your neighbor's poison. The world is waiting.

No comments: