Friday, March 7, 2014

My Next Advice is.......

As an advisor to 33 countries and a long term forecaster, my next advice should be taken most seriously and acted upon with the greatest speed and negotiations at the highest level if war is to be avoided.

There are 28 European Union member states, several candidates in the process of membership, and Ukraine to be considered in any policy action. I know this is a time for tough decisions to be made. You have all stood together against tyrants before. Mr. Putin is no different.

Regardless of the outcome of the illegal actions of the Crimean Parliament and the March 16th upcoming RIGGED election, as this is Mr. Putin's way of conducting elections, Crimea's secession must not be accepted by any UN member country. Crimea is part of a sovereign nation, and was illegally invaded in violation of international law.

I applaud the sanctions recently imposed by the European Union and the United States. I ask the other UN countries to impose sanctions as well. I also ask that you consider a "reverse fuel embargo" against Russia after you have located different sources of energy supplies. There are many suppliers available to you. The price can be negotiated down by the supplying country's government on your behalf. There is no need for any country to pay higher energy costs as a result of this tyrant. Any additional expense should be taken out of what you owe Russia as a penalty for invading Crimea and interfering in the internal operations of a sovereign nation and violating its sovereignty by an illegal invasion. Russia will not like this, but Russia has caused this problem, and must bear the cost of its violation of a sovereign country. Only by imposing these penalties can we ever hope to have a sense of faith that every country will treat one another with respect.

I see Mr. Yanukovych's tyranny as having ended in abdication of his presidency. I knew he would flee to Russia. I knew Putin would not be happy and might retaliate. I know he wants to be seen as a tough man. Instead, he has only been seen as a mentally unstable, irrational, and spoiled bully who throws temper tantrums.

If I were you, I would be talking to the foreign ministers of your countries and having them contact the foreign ministers of countries with excess energy resources. I would also begin to wean my country off of fossil fuels at the same time.

As for Russia growing economy, my projections are this: 1) Russia will suffer an inflation rate of 5% or greater this year. 2) Every month that Russia illegally occupies Crimea and keeps the Black Sea Fleet stationed there, Russia will lose another 1-3% of its income due to investment value depletion, and economic sanctions. I would also cancel my country's participation in the Paraolympics.

Putin  and his cronies must be shown that aggression against other sovereign nations and their territories will not be tolerated. The secession of Crimea from Ukraine must not be tolerated either.

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